Astronomy 10 - Project #1
Vista College, Spring 2003
Adapted from an exercise by P. Francis
Project #1: Testing Astrology
Introduction
This assignment will be worth 5% of your total grade for this class.
It is due at the beginning of class on February 20. Prior to that
time it may also be e-mailed to me (preferably in text format) at sallmen@ssl.berkeley.edu.
7% will be deducted from the mark for every 24 hours, or part thereof, it
is late.
This assignment will require some planning ahead and careful thought,
so don't leave it to the last minute! Since it is worth 5% of your
total grade, you should take some care with it. Your report should be no
more than 500 words (about 2 typewritten pages). Please make sure that your
paper is typewritten (if that is impossible, please make sure it is neatly
handwritten). I shouldn't need to reread my questions to figure out
which discussion item you are addressing.
Testing Astrology
You're all familiar with the horoscopes in the daily paper! Basically,
astrology says that human events are influenced by the apparent positions
of the Sun, Moon, and planets among the stars in our sky. After all, the
Sun's position in the sky determines the seasons, and so the times of planting,
harvesting, warmth, cold, daylight, and darkness. Why shouldn't the other
heavenly bodies that move among the stars affect our lives as well?
Even the days of the week are named after the Sun, Moon, Mercury and so on.
On Homework #1 I asked you to design an experiment to test astrology.
In this assignment, you will carry out one such experiment. The aim is to
carry out a scientific test of the accuracy (or otherwise) of horoscopes,
and to analyze the results.
The Experiment:
- Find a set of horoscopes for the coming week. Copy them down or cut
them out and store them.
- Choose at least 5 people to be your subjects (guinea-pigs).
More subjects will make your results even more conclusive. Make sure that
they have not seen the horoscopes you are using.
- Remove the star signs from the horoscopes so that nobody could tell
just by reading them which horoscope is for which star sign. You may need
to edit the body of the horoscopes as well as the headers. Keep a record
of which horoscope goes with which star sign.
- At the end of the week, show your subjects these edited horoscopes.
Ask them to tell you which of the forecasts best matched the events of
the past week.
- Carefully record how many of your subjects chose the horoscope corresponding
to their star sign.
- If you wish, you can use horoscopes for a particular day instead,
but then you must edit your horoscopes that day, and interview all of your
subjects that evening or early the next day.
- If you can think of a way to improve upon the method of the experiment,
please do so!
If horoscope predictions were accurate, you would expect most people to
pick their own star sign. If they are completely inaccurate, then only one
in every twelve people (on average) should pick their own star sign.
The Writeup
Write up your results, taking care to address the following points.
Please make sure your work is neat (typewritten is preferred). I
shouldn't need to reread my questions to figure out which discussion item
you are addressing.
- The Data
- Describe any precautions you took to make sure that this experiment
was fair and unbiased. Did you improve on the method above in any way?
- Include the source and date of your horoscopes, the signs of your
subjects, and the signs of the horoscopes they chose.
- Analysis and Conclusions
- Draw whatever conclusions you can from these results. Marks
will be given for drawing realistic conclusions.
- Are there any unexpected patterns in your results? If so, what
might have caused them?
- Point out any problems with this method of testing the accuracy
of horoscopes.
- What limits the conclusions that you are able to draw from your
results?
- How could you improve on the method you have used?
- Discussion and Further Analysis
- Did you believe in astrological horoscopes before you began this
experiment?
- Did the results of the experiment match your expectations?
- Relating Astrology to Astronomy
- The system of astrological predictions was created about 2000
years ago. Your star sign is defined by the date of your birth, and is related
to the zodiacal constellation in which the sun is located on that date.
- My husband's birthday is November 25. This makes him a Sagittarius.
The January sky chart on on p. 453 (Appendix B) of your text book shows
the sky for 11pm in late November (or 7pm in late January). What constellation
of the zodiac is high overhead at this time? Does it match the star sign
for late November? Based on the definition of a star sign, would you expect
it to?
- Now find the location of the Sun at the end of November (look
on the July sky chart). What constellation of the zodiac does the sun lie
in late November? Does this match the star sign for late November? Based
on the definition of a star sign, would you expect it to?
- Can you think of an astronomical effect that can explain this?
(Hint: It is the same reason that the North Star was not Polaris
for the ancient Egyptians).
- Is there anything special about the constellations of the zodiac?
Are their stars physically related to each other?
- Is the gravitational influence of the stars and planets strong
enough to have affected you at your birth?
- Some argue that horoscopes are only valid if you include the positions
of all of the planets at the time of your birth. If you accept this as fact,
do you think this means that all horoscopes written before the discoveries
of Uranus (1781), Neptune (1846), and Pluto (1930) were wrong?
- Extending Your Results
- Here's another possible test of astrology.
Take a single horoscope. Edit it so that it is "anonymous". Tell each
one of your subjects that it is the horoscope for their star sign. Ask them
if it was accurate. If horoscopes are accurate, then only those with the
correct star sign should agree that this horoscope describes their experience.
Given your conclusions from the experiment that you just completed, what
do you think would be the results of this new experiment?
- Based on everything you've considered, do you think of astrology
as scientifically supported, a nonscience, or a pseudoscience? Briefly
defend your response.