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The Ukraine Crisis
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Scrooge McDuck ![]() Send message Joined: 26 Nov 99 Posts: 1746 Credit: 1,674,173 RAC: 54 ![]() ![]() |
... it looks like Ukraine today disarmed a significant part of Russia's strategic bomber force on the ground at their bases as far away as Eastern Siberia, East of Moscow and Lapland (near Finland). A few expensive long range drones and malfunctioning Russian Air Defense? No! It seems Urainians outfitted a couple of ordinary twenty foot containers with a flat, DIY made upper deck, transporting dozens of small drones each far inland to their launch positions near Russian strategic airbases. Ukraine Strikes Russian Bombers Ahead of Istanbul Talks A source with Ukraine's SBU security service said the coordinated attacks inside Russia were "aimed at destroying enemy bombers far from the front."This type of attack with cheap, small drones, a DIY workshop, some people outfitting a couple containers there is impossible in the U.S.? ...in Europe? Because we are well prepared against such hybrid threats? Isn't it? Right? |
![]() ![]() Send message Joined: 24 Jan 00 Posts: 38200 Credit: 261,360,520 RAC: 489 ![]() ![]() |
Blown up or just another case of PooTin's military overloading them with extra heavy traffic like in a couple of other cases leading to their collapse? Seven killed in bridges collapse in two Russian regions bordering Ukraine. At least seven people were killed and 69 injured when two bridges were blown up in separate Russian regions bordering Ukraine, Russian officials said |
Scrooge McDuck ![]() Send message Joined: 26 Nov 99 Posts: 1746 Credit: 1,674,173 RAC: 54 ![]() ![]() |
Blown up. |
Scrooge McDuck ![]() Send message Joined: 26 Nov 99 Posts: 1746 Credit: 1,674,173 RAC: 54 ![]() ![]() |
It seems Urainians outfitted a couple of ordinary twenty foot containers with a flat, DIY made upper deck, transporting dozens of small drones each far inland to their launch positions near Russian strategic airbases.https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/01/what-we-know-about-ukraines-drone-attacks-in-russia-a89294 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 31366 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 ![]() ![]() |
My sources have told me there was much more than just a few airplanes, also notice was given a day in advance so the loss of the assets wouldn't be a surprise SALT ways. If I were Ukraine I'd be working on a second round to hit munitions factories. Maybe some more sea drones nasty on the Black Sea. Make Putin bleed. |
W-K 666 ![]() Send message Joined: 18 May 99 Posts: 19723 Credit: 40,757,560 RAC: 67 ![]() ![]() |
My sources have told me there was much more than just a few airplanes, also notice was given a day in advance so the loss of the assets wouldn't be a surprise SALT ways. Explosions at Kerch bridge, under inspection by the Russians to see if it can be used. https://liveuamap.com/en/2025/3-june-05-engineers-inspecting-constructions-of-kerch-bridge |
Scrooge McDuck ![]() Send message Joined: 26 Nov 99 Posts: 1746 Credit: 1,674,173 RAC: 54 ![]() ![]() |
My sources have told me there was much more than just a few airplanes, also notice was given a day in advance so the loss of the assets wouldn't be a surprise SALT ways.Regarding SALT. I thought Putin anulled the Russian-American treaties on ballistic missile reduction, nuclear arms etc. In the recent past Peskov claimed Russia wasn't obliged to announce the launch of an Oreshnik IRBM at Dnipro to U.S. authorities because [long list of lies] it's "intermediate" instead of 'intercontinental'. And the thing is, Ukraine is no signatory to SALT or follow-on START treaties; why should they? They abandoned nuclear arms, missiles and destroyed their strategic bombers with the Budapest Memorandum. So, whom does Ukraine noticed in advance? U.S.? Russia? If they noticed Russia, why didn't they moved these birds ASAP to another airbase 100 km apart? Rumours tell Ukraine destroyed dozens of TU-95 subsonic and TU-22 supersonic bombers. But at the attacked East Siberian airbase they refrained from destroying the most modern TU-160 "Blackjack" supersonic bombers while they destroyed the older types nearby. Russia in the past just used TU-95 and TU-22 to attack Ukraine; never the few, expensive TU-160. If I were Ukraine I'd be working on a second round to hit munitions factories. Maybe some more sea drones nasty on the Black Sea.They spend one and a half year to prepare this. Difficult to repeat the same scheme. From now on Russian authorities will rigidly check all kinds of trucks all over the country; and check garages, industrial buildings, and workshops frequently. But more than destroying these strategic bombers; the effect on Russian road transport will be dramatic. It's like establishing border checks at every oblast border within. You can strangle a whole economy by slowing down road logistics, causing miles-long queues of trucks everywhere, like bombing and disabling the Crimea Bridge for months. Suspicions, false alerts, hysteria... Then, it seems easy to burn an airplane by blasting a small drone on top of its wings (fuel, resp. vapors). But what about factories? You need a bigger hammer (long range drone? missile?) to damage a building. Make Putin bleedSupposedly, the fastest... but eventually the only option to 'demotivate' Russian warmongers. |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 31366 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 ![]() ![]() |
Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nukes, making them and their delivery vehicles legitimate targets. However, destroying part of his MAD triad sends a terrifying message, opening the possibility of first strike. He is no longer the Soviet Union, he doesn't have the resources to replenish. He can't risk losing too many of his newer or strategic assets. It is a demonstration of how to make him impotent, weak and a blueprint for others to follow. A follow on or two will force his hand. The use of cargo trucks, well, Alfred P. Murrah shows what could be done. The necessary police forces to inspect every vehicle, it isn't within his budget. Bridges look easy but tunnels are much harder to rebuild. |
Scrooge McDuck ![]() Send message Joined: 26 Nov 99 Posts: 1746 Credit: 1,674,173 RAC: 54 ![]() ![]() |
Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nukes, making them and their delivery vehicles legitimate targets. However, destroying part of his MAD triad sends a terrifying message, opening the possibility of first strike. He is no longer the Soviet Union, he doesn't have the resources to replenish. He can't risk losing too many of his newer or strategic assets. It is a demonstration of how to make him impotent, weak and a blueprint for others to follow. A follow on or two will force his hand.I agree to most points. ...but 'threatened'? ...'force his hand'? What is a credible nuclear threat? I don't think it's this stupid babble in Russia's TV propaganda. They threaten the UK, France, Germany each day with nuclear destruction. That's boasting for the domestic TV audience and to convince the German 'peace-preserving' extreme-left and extreme-right in their arguments 'we' must talk, negotiate, obey to Putin's will, because 'nuclear' equals 'invincible'. We can't know how Putin threatens Ukraine via backchannel diplomacy. Since the SMO is in its 4th year; Putin's threats so far did not convince Ukraine. A strange coincidence: in all recent negotiations in Istanbul, Russia insists it's only them and Ukraine's representatitives in the room, before they start talking; neither Americans; nor Turks, no international diplomats. Why? I think the bombers became legitimate targets (independent from nuclear threats) the moment they launched cruise missiles at Ukraine. That's the drawback of 'dual-use vagueness'. You can't retreat behind the argument my supersonic bombers are crucial 'strategic assets' of my nuclear deterrence (beware of attacks... or armageddon) after you misused them dozens of times to flatten numerous appartment blocks conventionally all over Ukraine. The most terrifying message this attack sends is: you can repeat it almost everywhere:: in the U.S., India, China, Europe, Iran ... The Chinese demonstrated impressing, acrobatic drone swarms... for what? Reading between the lines, your argument on the MAD triad "sounds like" the West, or rather the U.S. gov has some influence on Ukraine's strategic decisions; like carring out such stunt or not; or e.g. some saying in limiting its impact (the total number?, types? of hit planes) because of 'MAD triad'. I don't sense this; instead I believe Ukraine is unwilling to discuss its hybrid warfare in Russia, if they aren't forced to (e.g. to gain access to Western intelligence, satellites, airborne recon). They didn't need the West for the attack on Russia's airbases. Their location is no secret. The aircraft could be easily monitored by spies, even far from the perimeter fence. When they started the attack and saw they successfully burned the first couple of planes... Did they continue and attacked all they could? Or did they back off in the end? We will never know. [...] Bridges look easy but tunnels are much harder to rebuild.Almost no tunnels in Russia's European regions; mainly lowlands. There are a couple long railway tunnels along Siberia's Far East Transsib and especially the later added parallel BAM mainline. |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 31366 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 ![]() ![]() |
Force his hand, to end the conflict before his fear of the West launching a first strike because he is too weak to respond. A very dangerous game. As to Western help, it isn't just the location of the base. It isn't just that the assets are present at H hour. It is the resources to forge the paperwork necessary to move the trucks across Russia, where the checkpoints are, when they are manned, and get them parked close enough with placement allowing takeoff. (Publicly we may never know if battery packs had to charged before takeoff - extraction for operatives.) It is the communications for the FPV operators. There is a lot more than target location involved in an operation. As to my sources, I really can't say much without placing them in danger, something I'm unwilling to do. All I'll say is one or more of the three letters and plays "war games." |
Scrooge McDuck ![]() Send message Joined: 26 Nov 99 Posts: 1746 Credit: 1,674,173 RAC: 54 ![]() ![]() |
Force his hand, to end the conflict before his fear of the West launching a first strike because he is too weak to respond. A very dangerous game.He does not fear the West, nor 'first strikes'. He knows NATO will never attack Russia. That's Russian BS propaganda. Since Gorbatchevs late 1980s policy of détente... since the NATO-Russia cooperation of the 1990s, Russia's leaders learned in detail what NATO is; how this political/military organization decides. It's defensive; dependent on mutual consent within. It's not the U.S. orders to attack Russia and NATO obeys. Russia knows this. Nevertheless, they continue to spread their propaganda lies, baseless accusations; the opposite of truth; as the Soviets did before. As the war started to 'eat up' Russia's prepared invasion army, they withdrew most of their heavy arms positioned near NATO territories; from Kaliningrad, Pskov region, also Karelia; and send these troops into the slaughter in Ukraine. You don't expose your borders if NATO represents a threat. Putin... all Russian leaders know. There is no imperialist mind in NATO countries to expand, to conquer new territories, to subdue and exploit them. But there is in Russia... ever was... since centuries (yes in between the Germans...). But imagine Nazis, not the U.S., would have developed nuclear bombs in WW2. Scientific and technical capabilities... far-fetched? So, the world would had to obey to Nazis' ruthless, brutal, imperialist will? a 'dangerous game' not to.... obey? Ukraine poses no existential threat to Russia. That's what nuclear arms do. [EDIT to add:] A prosperous, democratic Ukraine may do.
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![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 31366 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 ![]() ![]() |
If Ukraine exists not as a puppet, Russia loses its only warm water port. That is existential to a soviet mind. If NATO was weak enough Russia would invade. That is how they think. So they think the opposite. If Russia was weak enough NATO would invade. And it is true. You and I know it wouldn't be with tanks, but ideas. |
![]() Send message Joined: 25 Nov 01 Posts: 21763 Credit: 7,508,002 RAC: 20 ![]() ![]() |
After the two audacious hits that Russia has suffered recently, we have these two excellent quotes from YouTube comments: Danish joke :) Two Russians are sitting on a bench. One says, "This special operation is really dragging on." The other replies, "Actually, it's a war. Not just against Ukraine, but also NATO. That's why it's taking so long." The first one asks, "Okay... so what do we call it?" The second one says, "So far, we have lost 33 generals, 350 planes, 350 helicopters, 32 ships, 1 submarine, 390 air defense systems, 10,000 tanks, 24,000 armored vehicles, 1 million men, and much, much more..." The first one responds, "Wow, that's quite a lot... Hmm, but what about NATO?" The second one shrugs, "Well... I don't know. They haven't shown up yet." Finnish joke (from the Winter War): So a Russian battalion is marching up to the front and a voice cries out, "One Finn can defeat ten Russians." So, the commander sends ten men to deal with the insolent Finn. They hear a lot of noise, and then quiet, and the voice yells again, "One Finn can defeat one hundred Russians." So, the commander sends one hundred men to deal with the insolent Finn. They hear a lot of noise, and then quiet, and the voice yells again, "One Finn can defeat one thousand Russians." So, the commander sends one thousand men to deal with the insolent Finn. They hear a lot of noise, and then quiet, but one badly wounded Russian soldier comes crawling back, and in his dying breath, he gasps, "It´s a trap! There are two Finns!"
See new freedom: Mageia Linux Take a look for yourself: Linux Format The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3) |
Scrooge McDuck ![]() Send message Joined: 26 Nov 99 Posts: 1746 Credit: 1,674,173 RAC: 54 ![]() ![]() |
If Ukraine exists not as a puppet, Russia loses its only warm water port. That is existential to a soviet mind.They have sufficient large and 'warm water' ports in Southern Russia: Rostov, Novorossiysk, others... They can't dominate the Black Sea from these, that is. But why do they have to? What they are really after is the warm climate of southern lands near the Black Sea; and the most fertile black earth soils on earth (Russian Mafia prefers profitable sectors without high-tech complexities or financial risks). [...] You and I know it wouldn't be with tanks, but ideas.It was always about European ideas in Russia... That's why Czar Peter "The Great" conquered the Eastern Baltic coastline from Sweden, founded St. Petersburg in the coastal swamps of Neva river; made it the Russian capital, attracted foreigners; traders, scientists; he ended centuries of land-locked Russian isolation, its hitherto total backwardness (e.g. serfdom); all he aspired was... to "westernize" Russia; culture revolution... administrative reforms... permanent exchange with the most progressive Europ. countries; he encouraged Prussian-Russian marriages of its aristocracy; foreigners as high gov officials; Balts, Prussians, Danes, ... WW1, resp. Bolsheviks stopped it. Foreigners? Either traitors or spies... Lock 'em up! Jews? Beware... untrustworthy. Putin adores Czar Peter and Czarina Katharina (also "The Great") for their imperial conquests. Why don't he (resp. Russia's powerful) grasp that Peter's and Katharina's most important achievement was interweaving Russian society, culture, science, trade, tightly with Europe's. Never let a small mind rule an Empire... Today's Russian powerful are narrow-minded imperialists; AND isolationists (what a contradiction!) "Nashi"... just (us) Russians, and (our) Russia, ... Russia... above all else. This mindset would have dismantled their adored, wished-back (multi-ethnic) Soviet Union as soon as Stalin's totalitarian grip loosened with his death. Why can't they see that? They now errect new Stalin monuments instead... Barf! How to change such a destructive mindset? You can't reeducate 140M people. (most indifferent probably..., but the maybe 10...100K Ruscists...) So, either:
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![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 31366 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 ![]() ![]() |
If you note on a map both those ports you mention have to go through the black sea to reach the Mediterranean and then on to open Ocean. Count the countries that have shoreline on the Black Sea. Notice how many are aligned with the West and/or are NATO Members? That is the threat, that he will be so outnumbered that he won't be able to host his warships there. All you need is to think of the northern route the convoys had to take in WWII to supply Russia.If Ukraine exists not as a puppet, Russia loses its only warm water port. That is existential to a soviet mind.They have sufficient large and 'warm water' ports in Southern Russia: Rostov, Novorossiysk, others... They can't dominate the Black Sea from these, that is. But why do they have to? |
Scrooge McDuck ![]() Send message Joined: 26 Nov 99 Posts: 1746 Credit: 1,674,173 RAC: 54 ![]() ![]() |
Errm... what do you suggest, Russia should do then? Conquer the whole Black Sea region? They tried this already in the 1850s. They lost and signed a peace treaty; which banned them from hosting warships in the Black Sea. They violated it few years later...If you note on a map both those ports you mention have to go through the black sea to reach the Mediterranean and then on to open Ocean. Count the countries that have shoreline on the Black Sea. Notice how many are aligned with the West and/or are NATO Members? That is the threat, that he will be so outnumbered that he won't be able to host his warships there. All you need is to think of the northern route the convoys had to take in WWII to supply Russia.If Ukraine exists not as a puppet, Russia loses its only warm water port. That is existential to a soviet mind.They have sufficient large and 'warm water' ports in Southern Russia: Rostov, Novorossiysk, others... They can't dominate the Black Sea from these, that is. But why do they have to? What warm water port at what ocean should become Russian? Why is that about Ukraine? If NATO is capable to blockade the Bosphorus and Turkiye permitted by the 1936 Montreux convention to deny passage of military vessels during wartimes (like now). What is this Russian Black Sea Fleet stupidity all about? They don't want to project actual naval power, they just want to boast about it. Fear our mighty, invincible cruisers... and obey to our will! The Black Sea is obviously too small for modern warships, that's why Ukraine has sunk Russia's largest one with a land-based missile. What's this nonsense? Russia is truly pitiable. I feel for them. It ever was just a land power, never a real naval one (e.g. no overseas colonies). It's their fate. They should accept it. They have access to the Pacific. Isn't that enough? Btw. Mr. Xi, hows your archive of old Manchurian maps doing? Syria has fallen. Port of Tartus is lost. Baltic Sea became a 'NATO lake' recently with Sweden and Finland; Arctic Murmansk & Polyarny naval bases not far from Finland & Norway? Bad luck... really. |
rob smith ![]() ![]() ![]() Send message Joined: 7 Mar 03 Posts: 22816 Credit: 416,307,556 RAC: 380 ![]() ![]() |
They don't want to project actual naval power, they just want to boast about it. Boasting about having power is a major part of projection of power. Bob Smith Member of Seti PIPPS (Pluto is a Planet Protest Society) Somewhere in the (un)known Universe? |
Scrooge McDuck ![]() Send message Joined: 26 Nov 99 Posts: 1746 Credit: 1,674,173 RAC: 54 ![]() ![]() |
True. How many of their mighty Sarmats, Tochkas... will be operational and ready to launch?They don't want to project actual naval power, they just want to boast about it. I heard it costs a ridiculous amount of money to keep this stuff operational. Tritium in hydrogen warheads... half of which decays each twelve years... Damn. It seems to me it's just a round of poker. Who bluffs the most convincingly, even though clothing condition indicates a lack of money.... and... no success in this game? |
![]() ![]() Send message Joined: 24 Jan 00 Posts: 38200 Credit: 261,360,520 RAC: 489 ![]() ![]() |
PooTin gets more mud in his face. ‘Nothing secret left’: Ukraine hacks its way to crucial Russian military information in huge blow to PooTin. Ukraine has struck another major blow to Russia’s internal operations, days after pulling off one of the most devastating covert attacks deep inside Vladimir Putin’s territory. |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 31366 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 ![]() ![]() |
Read access is nice, write access is .. will the wing fall off? |
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