The Ukraine Crisis

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Scrooge McDuck
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Message 2149503 - Posted: 1 Jun 2025, 20:09:22 UTC
Last modified: 1 Jun 2025, 20:11:52 UTC

... it looks like Ukraine today disarmed a significant part of Russia's strategic bomber force on the ground at their bases as far away as Eastern Siberia, East of Moscow and Lapland (near Finland).

A few expensive long range drones and malfunctioning Russian Air Defense? No!

It seems Urainians outfitted a couple of ordinary twenty foot containers with a flat, DIY made upper deck, transporting dozens of small drones each far inland to their launch positions near Russian strategic airbases.

Ukraine Strikes Russian Bombers Ahead of Istanbul Talks

A source with Ukraine's SBU security service said the coordinated attacks inside Russia were "aimed at destroying enemy bombers far from the front."

The source said Russian airbases in the eastern Siberian city of Belaya, in Olenya, up in the Arctic near Finland, and in Ivanovo and Dyagilevo, both east of Moscow, had been targeted.

More than 40 aircraft had been hit at the Belaya base, and a fire had broken out there, the source said, showing a video in which several aircraft could be seen in flames and black smoke rising.

"It's the first attack of this sort in Siberia," Governor Igor Kobzev said, calling on the population not to panic. He posted an amateur video apparently showing a drone flying in the sky, and a large cloud of grey smoke.

The governor of the Murmansk region, where the Olenya base is located, Andrey Chibis, also said "enemy drones were flying overhead, and anti-aircraft defenses were operating.
This type of attack with cheap, small drones, a DIY workshop, some people outfitting a couple containers there is impossible in the U.S.? ...in Europe? Because we are well prepared against such hybrid threats? Isn't it? Right?
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Message 2149504 - Posted: 1 Jun 2025, 20:39:45 UTC

Blown up or just another case of PooTin's military overloading them with extra heavy traffic like in a couple of other cases leading to their collapse?

Seven killed in bridges collapse in two Russian regions bordering Ukraine.

At least seven people were killed and 69 injured when two bridges were blown up in separate Russian regions bordering Ukraine, Russian officials said

A highway bridge over a railway in the Bryansk region was blown up on Saturday night, local time, as a passenger train carrying 388 passengers to Moscow was passing underneath, Russian investigators said.

Just four hours later, a railway bridge over a highway was blown up in the neighbouring Kursk region, showering the road with parts of a freight train, the investigators said.

Russia's Investigative Committee, which probes serious crimes, linked the incidents and said explicitly that both bridges were blown up.....
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Message 2149505 - Posted: 1 Jun 2025, 20:56:39 UTC

Blown up.
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Message 2149509 - Posted: 1 Jun 2025, 21:42:53 UTC - in response to Message 2149503.  
Last modified: 1 Jun 2025, 21:43:22 UTC

It seems Urainians outfitted a couple of ordinary twenty foot containers with a flat, DIY made upper deck, transporting dozens of small drones each far inland to their launch positions near Russian strategic airbases.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/01/what-we-know-about-ukraines-drone-attacks-in-russia-a89294
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Message 2149540 - Posted: 3 Jun 2025, 3:59:34 UTC - in response to Message 2149509.  

My sources have told me there was much more than just a few airplanes, also notice was given a day in advance so the loss of the assets wouldn't be a surprise SALT ways.

If I were Ukraine I'd be working on a second round to hit munitions factories. Maybe some more sea drones nasty on the Black Sea. Make Putin bleed.
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Message 2149541 - Posted: 3 Jun 2025, 6:46:27 UTC - in response to Message 2149540.  

My sources have told me there was much more than just a few airplanes, also notice was given a day in advance so the loss of the assets wouldn't be a surprise SALT ways.

If I were Ukraine I'd be working on a second round to hit munitions factories. Maybe some more sea drones nasty on the Black Sea. Make Putin bleed.

Explosions at Kerch bridge, under inspection by the Russians to see if it can be used.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2025/3-june-05-engineers-inspecting-constructions-of-kerch-bridge
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Message 2149546 - Posted: 3 Jun 2025, 12:34:55 UTC - in response to Message 2149540.  
Last modified: 3 Jun 2025, 12:45:09 UTC

My sources have told me there was much more than just a few airplanes, also notice was given a day in advance so the loss of the assets wouldn't be a surprise SALT ways.
Regarding SALT. I thought Putin anulled the Russian-American treaties on ballistic missile reduction, nuclear arms etc. In the recent past Peskov claimed Russia wasn't obliged to announce the launch of an Oreshnik IRBM at Dnipro to U.S. authorities because [long list of lies] it's "intermediate" instead of 'intercontinental'.

And the thing is, Ukraine is no signatory to SALT or follow-on START treaties; why should they? They abandoned nuclear arms, missiles and destroyed their strategic bombers with the Budapest Memorandum.

So, whom does Ukraine noticed in advance? U.S.? Russia? If they noticed Russia, why didn't they moved these birds ASAP to another airbase 100 km apart?

Rumours tell Ukraine destroyed dozens of TU-95 subsonic and TU-22 supersonic bombers. But at the attacked East Siberian airbase they refrained from destroying the most modern TU-160 "Blackjack" supersonic bombers while they destroyed the older types nearby. Russia in the past just used TU-95 and TU-22 to attack Ukraine; never the few, expensive TU-160.

If I were Ukraine I'd be working on a second round to hit munitions factories. Maybe some more sea drones nasty on the Black Sea.
They spend one and a half year to prepare this. Difficult to repeat the same scheme. From now on Russian authorities will rigidly check all kinds of trucks all over the country; and check garages, industrial buildings, and workshops frequently.

But more than destroying these strategic bombers; the effect on Russian road transport will be dramatic. It's like establishing border checks at every oblast border within. You can strangle a whole economy by slowing down road logistics, causing miles-long queues of trucks everywhere, like bombing and disabling the Crimea Bridge for months. Suspicions, false alerts, hysteria...

Then, it seems easy to burn an airplane by blasting a small drone on top of its wings (fuel, resp. vapors). But what about factories? You need a bigger hammer (long range drone? missile?) to damage a building.

Make Putin bleed
Supposedly, the fastest... but eventually the only option to 'demotivate' Russian warmongers.
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Message 2149547 - Posted: 3 Jun 2025, 13:10:18 UTC - in response to Message 2149546.  

Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nukes, making them and their delivery vehicles legitimate targets. However, destroying part of his MAD triad sends a terrifying message, opening the possibility of first strike. He is no longer the Soviet Union, he doesn't have the resources to replenish. He can't risk losing too many of his newer or strategic assets. It is a demonstration of how to make him impotent, weak and a blueprint for others to follow. A follow on or two will force his hand.

The use of cargo trucks, well, Alfred P. Murrah shows what could be done. The necessary police forces to inspect every vehicle, it isn't within his budget. Bridges look easy but tunnels are much harder to rebuild.
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Message 2149548 - Posted: 3 Jun 2025, 14:54:32 UTC - in response to Message 2149547.  
Last modified: 3 Jun 2025, 15:00:20 UTC

Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nukes, making them and their delivery vehicles legitimate targets. However, destroying part of his MAD triad sends a terrifying message, opening the possibility of first strike. He is no longer the Soviet Union, he doesn't have the resources to replenish. He can't risk losing too many of his newer or strategic assets. It is a demonstration of how to make him impotent, weak and a blueprint for others to follow. A follow on or two will force his hand.
I agree to most points. ...but 'threatened'? ...'force his hand'?

What is a credible nuclear threat? I don't think it's this stupid babble in Russia's TV propaganda. They threaten the UK, France, Germany each day with nuclear destruction. That's boasting for the domestic TV audience and to convince the German 'peace-preserving' extreme-left and extreme-right in their arguments 'we' must talk, negotiate, obey to Putin's will, because 'nuclear' equals 'invincible'.

We can't know how Putin threatens Ukraine via backchannel diplomacy. Since the SMO is in its 4th year; Putin's threats so far did not convince Ukraine. A strange coincidence: in all recent negotiations in Istanbul, Russia insists it's only them and Ukraine's representatitives in the room, before they start talking; neither Americans; nor Turks, no international diplomats. Why?

I think the bombers became legitimate targets (independent from nuclear threats) the moment they launched cruise missiles at Ukraine. That's the drawback of 'dual-use vagueness'. You can't retreat behind the argument my supersonic bombers are crucial 'strategic assets' of my nuclear deterrence (beware of attacks... or armageddon) after you misused them dozens of times to flatten numerous appartment blocks conventionally all over Ukraine.

The most terrifying message this attack sends is: you can repeat it almost everywhere:: in the U.S., India, China, Europe, Iran ... The Chinese demonstrated impressing, acrobatic drone swarms... for what?

Reading between the lines, your argument on the MAD triad "sounds like" the West, or rather the U.S. gov has some influence on Ukraine's strategic decisions; like carring out such stunt or not; or e.g. some saying in limiting its impact (the total number?, types? of hit planes) because of 'MAD triad'. I don't sense this; instead I believe Ukraine is unwilling to discuss its hybrid warfare in Russia, if they aren't forced to (e.g. to gain access to Western intelligence, satellites, airborne recon). They didn't need the West for the attack on Russia's airbases. Their location is no secret. The aircraft could be easily monitored by spies, even far from the perimeter fence.

When they started the attack and saw they successfully burned the first couple of planes... Did they continue and attacked all they could? Or did they back off in the end? We will never know.

[...] Bridges look easy but tunnels are much harder to rebuild.
Almost no tunnels in Russia's European regions; mainly lowlands. There are a couple long railway tunnels along Siberia's Far East Transsib and especially the later added parallel BAM mainline.
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Message 2149556 - Posted: 3 Jun 2025, 22:52:42 UTC - in response to Message 2149548.  

Force his hand, to end the conflict before his fear of the West launching a first strike because he is too weak to respond. A very dangerous game.

As to Western help, it isn't just the location of the base. It isn't just that the assets are present at H hour. It is the resources to forge the paperwork necessary to move the trucks across Russia, where the checkpoints are, when they are manned, and get them parked close enough with placement allowing takeoff. (Publicly we may never know if battery packs had to charged before takeoff - extraction for operatives.) It is the communications for the FPV operators. There is a lot more than target location involved in an operation.

As to my sources, I really can't say much without placing them in danger, something I'm unwilling to do. All I'll say is one or more of the three letters and plays "war games."
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Message 2149564 - Posted: 4 Jun 2025, 12:34:58 UTC - in response to Message 2149556.  
Last modified: 4 Jun 2025, 12:46:13 UTC

Force his hand, to end the conflict before his fear of the West launching a first strike because he is too weak to respond. A very dangerous game.
He does not fear the West, nor 'first strikes'. He knows NATO will never attack Russia. That's Russian BS propaganda. Since Gorbatchevs late 1980s policy of détente... since the NATO-Russia cooperation of the 1990s, Russia's leaders learned in detail what NATO is; how this political/military organization decides. It's defensive; dependent on mutual consent within. It's not the U.S. orders to attack Russia and NATO obeys.

Russia knows this. Nevertheless, they continue to spread their propaganda lies, baseless accusations; the opposite of truth; as the Soviets did before.

As the war started to 'eat up' Russia's prepared invasion army, they withdrew most of their heavy arms positioned near NATO territories; from Kaliningrad, Pskov region, also Karelia; and send these troops into the slaughter in Ukraine. You don't expose your borders if NATO represents a threat. Putin... all Russian leaders know. There is no imperialist mind in NATO countries to expand, to conquer new territories, to subdue and exploit them. But there is in Russia... ever was... since centuries (yes in between the Germans...). But imagine Nazis, not the U.S., would have developed nuclear bombs in WW2. Scientific and technical capabilities... far-fetched? So, the world would had to obey to Nazis' ruthless, brutal, imperialist will? a 'dangerous game' not to.... obey?

Ukraine poses no existential threat to Russia. That's what nuclear arms do. [EDIT to add:] A prosperous, democratic Ukraine may do.

  1. Russia would never attack Ukraine with nuclear arms; it would immediately become a global pariah, forcing all others (including India, China) to totally isolate them.
  2. a race for nuclear arms would commence among all industrialized countries. They would render Russia's remaining power projection useless against, e.g. Japan, SKorea; or what about e.g. Sweden?


It's against China's, or e.g. India's interests. I'm convinced Xi explained this in clear language to Putin. The whole concept of nuclear non-proliferation depends on the commitment of great powers never to threaten non-nuclear ones with nuclear arms.

The most serious threat to Russia is the damage done by Putin himself (war spending, shredding Russia's young rural males (demographics!!!)... Asian minorities (pah... no Russians...); missed investments in basic infrastructure; its maintenance; overall: modernization of a backward country). Every thoughtful Russian looking at his country will come to this conclusion. It's foremost up to Russia to change course, to mitigate the threat they believe they feel from "the West".

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Message 2149570 - Posted: 4 Jun 2025, 13:13:37 UTC - in response to Message 2149564.  

If Ukraine exists not as a puppet, Russia loses its only warm water port. That is existential to a soviet mind.

If NATO was weak enough Russia would invade. That is how they think. So they think the opposite. If Russia was weak enough NATO would invade. And it is true. You and I know it wouldn't be with tanks, but ideas.
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Message 2149571 - Posted: 4 Jun 2025, 13:20:10 UTC
Last modified: 4 Jun 2025, 13:20:30 UTC

After the two audacious hits that Russia has suffered recently, we have these two excellent quotes from YouTube comments:


    Danish joke :) Two Russians are sitting on a bench. One says, "This special operation is really dragging on." The other replies, "Actually, it's a war. Not just against Ukraine, but also NATO. That's why it's taking so long." The first one asks, "Okay... so what do we call it?" The second one says, "So far, we have lost 33 generals, 350 planes, 350 helicopters, 32 ships, 1 submarine, 390 air defense systems, 10,000 tanks, 24,000 armored vehicles, 1 million men, and much, much more..." The first one responds, "Wow, that's quite a lot... Hmm, but what about NATO?" The second one shrugs, "Well... I don't know. They haven't shown up yet."

    Finnish joke (from the Winter War): So a Russian battalion is marching up to the front and a voice cries out, "One Finn can defeat ten Russians." So, the commander sends ten men to deal with the insolent Finn. They hear a lot of noise, and then quiet, and the voice yells again, "One Finn can defeat one hundred Russians." So, the commander sends one hundred men to deal with the insolent Finn. They hear a lot of noise, and then quiet, and the voice yells again, "One Finn can defeat one thousand Russians." So, the commander sends one thousand men to deal with the insolent Finn. They hear a lot of noise, and then quiet, but one badly wounded Russian soldier comes crawling back, and in his dying breath, he gasps, "It´s a trap! There are two Finns!"




No doubt there are more!

All in a very deadly game of politics...
Martin


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Message 2149579 - Posted: 4 Jun 2025, 23:12:38 UTC - in response to Message 2149570.  

If Ukraine exists not as a puppet, Russia loses its only warm water port. That is existential to a soviet mind.
They have sufficient large and 'warm water' ports in Southern Russia: Rostov, Novorossiysk, others... They can't dominate the Black Sea from these, that is. But why do they have to?

What they are really after is the warm climate of southern lands near the Black Sea; and the most fertile black earth soils on earth (Russian Mafia prefers profitable sectors without high-tech complexities or financial risks).

[...] You and I know it wouldn't be with tanks, but ideas.
It was always about European ideas in Russia...

That's why Czar Peter "The Great" conquered the Eastern Baltic coastline from Sweden, founded St. Petersburg in the coastal swamps of Neva river; made it the Russian capital, attracted foreigners; traders, scientists; he ended centuries of land-locked Russian isolation, its hitherto total backwardness (e.g. serfdom); all he aspired was... to "westernize" Russia; culture revolution... administrative reforms... permanent exchange with the most progressive Europ. countries; he encouraged Prussian-Russian marriages of its aristocracy; foreigners as high gov officials; Balts, Prussians, Danes, ...

WW1, resp. Bolsheviks stopped it. Foreigners? Either traitors or spies... Lock 'em up! Jews? Beware... untrustworthy.

Putin adores Czar Peter and Czarina Katharina (also "The Great") for their imperial conquests. Why don't he (resp. Russia's powerful) grasp that Peter's and Katharina's most important achievement was interweaving Russian society, culture, science, trade, tightly with Europe's.

Never let a small mind rule an Empire...

Today's Russian powerful are narrow-minded imperialists; AND isolationists (what a contradiction!) "Nashi"... just (us) Russians, and (our) Russia, ... Russia... above all else. This mindset would have dismantled their adored, wished-back (multi-ethnic) Soviet Union as soon as Stalin's totalitarian grip loosened with his death. Why can't they see that? They now errect new Stalin monuments instead... Barf!

How to change such a destructive mindset? You can't reeducate 140M people. (most indifferent probably..., but the maybe 10...100K Ruscists...)

So, either:

  1. contain them, prevent them from expanding in Europe, Asia or Africa,
  2. or 'squeeze' them to change...
  3. what about de-colonization? (self determination for non-Russian nations within the Russian "Federation");


(1) was successful (and ultra expensive for all involved) in the Cold War. (2) ???

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Message 2149586 - Posted: 5 Jun 2025, 5:36:42 UTC - in response to Message 2149579.  

If Ukraine exists not as a puppet, Russia loses its only warm water port. That is existential to a soviet mind.
They have sufficient large and 'warm water' ports in Southern Russia: Rostov, Novorossiysk, others... They can't dominate the Black Sea from these, that is. But why do they have to?
If you note on a map both those ports you mention have to go through the black sea to reach the Mediterranean and then on to open Ocean. Count the countries that have shoreline on the Black Sea. Notice how many are aligned with the West and/or are NATO Members? That is the threat, that he will be so outnumbered that he won't be able to host his warships there. All you need is to think of the northern route the convoys had to take in WWII to supply Russia.
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Message 2149590 - Posted: 5 Jun 2025, 14:17:25 UTC - in response to Message 2149586.  
Last modified: 5 Jun 2025, 15:03:30 UTC

If Ukraine exists not as a puppet, Russia loses its only warm water port. That is existential to a soviet mind.
They have sufficient large and 'warm water' ports in Southern Russia: Rostov, Novorossiysk, others... They can't dominate the Black Sea from these, that is. But why do they have to?
If you note on a map both those ports you mention have to go through the black sea to reach the Mediterranean and then on to open Ocean. Count the countries that have shoreline on the Black Sea. Notice how many are aligned with the West and/or are NATO Members? That is the threat, that he will be so outnumbered that he won't be able to host his warships there. All you need is to think of the northern route the convoys had to take in WWII to supply Russia.
Errm... what do you suggest, Russia should do then? Conquer the whole Black Sea region? They tried this already in the 1850s. They lost and signed a peace treaty; which banned them from hosting warships in the Black Sea. They violated it few years later...

What warm water port at what ocean should become Russian? Why is that about Ukraine?

If NATO is capable to blockade the Bosphorus and Turkiye permitted by the 1936 Montreux convention to deny passage of military vessels during wartimes (like now). What is this Russian Black Sea Fleet stupidity all about? They don't want to project actual naval power, they just want to boast about it. Fear our mighty, invincible cruisers... and obey to our will! The Black Sea is obviously too small for modern warships, that's why Ukraine has sunk Russia's largest one with a land-based missile. What's this nonsense?

Russia is truly pitiable. I feel for them. It ever was just a land power, never a real naval one (e.g. no overseas colonies).

It's their fate. They should accept it. They have access to the Pacific. Isn't that enough? Btw. Mr. Xi, hows your archive of old Manchurian maps doing?

Syria has fallen. Port of Tartus is lost. Baltic Sea became a 'NATO lake' recently with Sweden and Finland; Arctic Murmansk & Polyarny naval bases not far from Finland & Norway? Bad luck... really.
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Message 2149591 - Posted: 5 Jun 2025, 14:29:46 UTC - in response to Message 2149590.  

They don't want to project actual naval power, they just want to boast about it.


Boasting about having power is a major part of projection of power.
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Message 2149592 - Posted: 5 Jun 2025, 14:54:15 UTC - in response to Message 2149591.  
Last modified: 5 Jun 2025, 14:54:49 UTC

They don't want to project actual naval power, they just want to boast about it.


Boasting about having power is a major part of projection of power.
True. How many of their mighty Sarmats, Tochkas... will be operational and ready to launch?

I heard it costs a ridiculous amount of money to keep this stuff operational. Tritium in hydrogen warheads... half of which decays each twelve years... Damn.

It seems to me it's just a round of poker. Who bluffs the most convincingly, even though clothing condition indicates a lack of money.... and... no success in this game?
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Message 2149597 - Posted: 5 Jun 2025, 20:26:04 UTC

PooTin gets more mud in his face.

‘Nothing secret left’: Ukraine hacks its way to crucial Russian military information in huge blow to PooTin.

Ukraine has struck another major blow to Russia’s internal operations, days after pulling off one of the most devastating covert attacks deep inside Vladimir Putin’s territory.

Ukraine military intelligence agency (HUR) has gained access to sensitive data of Russia’s strategic aircraft manufacturer Tupolev, a source in HUR told The Kyiv Independent.

Tupolev is a Soviet-era aerospace firm that has been fully integrated into Russia’s gargantuan defence-industrial complex. The firm has been under international sanctions since 2022 for its role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Its bombers have been widely used to launch long-range cruise missiles against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure with untold amounts of death and damage.

According to the source, HUR’s cyber corps accessed over 4.4 gigabytes (GB) of internal data, including official correspondence, personnel files, home addresses, resumes, purchase records, and closed meeting minutes......
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Message 2149611 - Posted: 6 Jun 2025, 1:07:21 UTC - in response to Message 2149597.  

Read access is nice, write access is .. will the wing fall off?
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Message boards : Politics : The Ukraine Crisis


 
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