US Presidential Race

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Profile Kyle
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Message 1802273 - Posted: 13 Jul 2016, 0:31:31 UTC

Trump can't make up his mind, and has said racist/biggoted things in the past, and Hillary is irresponsible and sent at least 22 of those emails while they were marked as classified. I disagreed with Sanders, and I didnt know enough about the other Republicans to really make a difference, and now its Hillary v. Trump. Guess this year wasn't a good one to register for the vote in November :?. What are your thoughts?[/i]
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Profile j mercer
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Message 1802277 - Posted: 13 Jul 2016, 0:49:30 UTC - in response to Message 1802273.  

I keep hoping the alarm clock will go off and I can wake up. ;^)
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Profile Gary Charpentier Crowdfunding Project Donor*Special Project $75 donorSpecial Project $250 donor
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Message 1802278 - Posted: 13 Jul 2016, 0:58:43 UTC - in response to Message 1802273.  

You could vote for Gary Johnson just to tell "them" how pissed you are.
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Message 1802280 - Posted: 13 Jul 2016, 1:12:28 UTC - in response to Message 1802278.  

You could vote for Gary Johnson just to tell "them" how pissed you are.

Like anyone has ever listened. LOL ;)

Low voter turn out should void the election requiring a restart. I dreaming... if I still can. ;)
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Message 1802283 - Posted: 13 Jul 2016, 1:46:45 UTC - in response to Message 1802278.  

You could vote for Gary Johnson just to tell "them" how pissed you are.

Yes but he will not be elected and in either case an undesirable will be president. The choice is a liar or a liar, thief and impulsive bully among other things.
I will hold my nose and vote for Hillary.
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Profile James Sotherden
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Message 1802314 - Posted: 13 Jul 2016, 6:42:33 UTC

I will most likely vomit when I cast my vote.
We really need a strong 3rd party person running.
[/quote]

Old James
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Message 1802319 - Posted: 13 Jul 2016, 7:12:11 UTC

This thread is most likely just going to be a continuation of the Donald Trump thread.
Bob DeWoody

My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events.
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Message 1802322 - Posted: 13 Jul 2016, 7:33:00 UTC - in response to Message 1802319.  

This thread is most likely just going to be a continuation of the Donald Trump thread.

It may have been started because of Sarge's comment in post 1802174 and your thread name.
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Message 1802352 - Posted: 13 Jul 2016, 13:16:18 UTC - in response to Message 1802283.  

I will hold my nose and vote for Hillary.

That thinking is why you get such poor choices!
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Message 1802452 - Posted: 14 Jul 2016, 0:37:49 UTC - in response to Message 1802448.  

This thread is most likely just going to be a continuation of the Donald Trump thread.

Agree.

I will hold my nose and vote for Hillary.

I will be vomiting.

To really make a statement you can hold your nose while vomiting.
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Message 1802453 - Posted: 14 Jul 2016, 0:49:46 UTC

Polling Station


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Message 1802477 - Posted: 14 Jul 2016, 6:53:27 UTC - in response to Message 1802453.  

Polling Station


LMAO. The new standard for placards on where to vote:)
[/quote]

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Message 1802521 - Posted: 14 Jul 2016, 14:01:03 UTC - in response to Message 1802502.  

The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly White House Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 44% support to Clinton’s 37%. Thirteen percent (13%) favor some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

Mrs. Clinton’s six-percentage-point lead over the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, in a CBS News poll last month has evaporated. The two candidates are now tied in a general election matchup, the new poll indicates, with each receiving the support of 40 percent of voters.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-poll.html?_r=0

You shouldn't post results from just a couple of polls. Go have a look at the latest polls in Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University say Trump is up by 6%, Marist College say Clinton by 8%.

Who to believe? Don't really know, but Rasmussen is generally agreed to lean heavily towards the GOP, so I'll pass on that one.

But this weeks trend does seem to be down for Hillary and stand still for Trump.
The HuffPost - Poll Chart gives an average view.
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Message 1802544 - Posted: 14 Jul 2016, 16:22:31 UTC - in response to Message 1802521.  

But this weeks trend does seem to be down for Hillary and stand still for Trump.
The HuffPost - Poll Chart gives an average view.

One has to know these days how the poll is conducted. If they only call land line numbers, they don't have a random sample anymore. Young voters will not be represented and the poll is likely to skew because of that. Calling cell phones is expensive and some polls even have to pay to get answers. That also skews results.

With the spread of the polls I suspect the error bars are much larger than what is stated.

As to that poll chart, while Clinton has gone down, Drumpf has not gone up! So it appears as if Drumpf is unable to obtain any additional support.

It isn't clear if Hillary's loss is to undecided or Gary Johnson!
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Message 1802552 - Posted: 14 Jul 2016, 16:57:19 UTC - in response to Message 1802544.  

One also needs to study,

number of those polled, low numbers like ~400 will produce much larger errors than a poll of over 1,000.

history of the poll, is it the first or is it an update and therefore shows trends.

and probably more importantly who did the poll, are they biased. Like Rasmussen Reports since Mr. Rasmussen left.
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Message 1802553 - Posted: 14 Jul 2016, 17:01:53 UTC - in response to Message 1802552.  

One also needs to study,

number of those polled, low numbers like ~400 will produce much larger errors than a poll of over 1,000.

history of the poll, is it the first or is it an update and therefore shows trends.

and probably more importantly who did the poll, are they biased. Like Rasmussen Reports since Mr. Rasmussen left.


Margin of error for sample of 400 ~ 1.58 * Margin of error for sample of 1000.
Capitalize on this good fortune, one word can bring you round ... changes.
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Message 1802556 - Posted: 14 Jul 2016, 17:05:51 UTC - in response to Message 1802553.  

Margin of error for sample of 400 ~ 1.58 * Margin of error for sample of 1000.
IFF samples are random and all answer when questions are put to them.
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Message 1802558 - Posted: 14 Jul 2016, 17:07:57 UTC - in response to Message 1802553.  

One also needs to study,

number of those polled, low numbers like ~400 will produce much larger errors than a poll of over 1,000.

history of the poll, is it the first or is it an update and therefore shows trends.

and probably more importantly who did the poll, are they biased. Like Rasmussen Reports since Mr. Rasmussen left.


Margin of error for sample of 400 ~ 1.58 * Margin of error for sample of 1000.

That's per candidate so in extreme case there could be indication of >3% swing.

And I forgot check date and period of poll, it might not be as up to date as you think. Some of the polls in early July covered data collected in most of June, not the last few days.
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Message 1802560 - Posted: 14 Jul 2016, 17:12:37 UTC - in response to Message 1802556.  

Margin of error for sample of 400 ~ 1.58 * Margin of error for sample of 1000.
IFF samples are random and all answer when questions are put to them.


AND answer sincerely/honestly.

However, margin of error is NOT meant to cover these issues. m = critical value for confidence level * standard deviation / sqrt(sample size).
Capitalize on this good fortune, one word can bring you round ... changes.
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Message 1802689 - Posted: 15 Jul 2016, 13:34:48 UTC - in response to Message 1802684.  

Apparently The Voters were lying to The Media.

No lies, the media did not use a random sample. That is the real issue with media polls.
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